Climate change: digital and displacement

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The impact of the climate crisis is on people, as well as the planet. It’s estimated that over 40% of the human population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, according to a 2022 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Some groups and populations are affected disproportionately. Concern Worldwide lists Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Chad as the three countries likely to be hardest hit by the climate emergency. The ranking is based on their likelihood of being affected and their readiness to mitigate or manage the consequences for their citizens.

Extreme weather events and other impacts of the climate crisis in one location can hit differently for some social groups. Very young children and babies, older people, people in poor health, people with low levels of mobility and those in low-income areas are most likely to be affected.

For many people living in places where the climate emergency threatens their health and may have destroyed their home, leaving is the only option. Most flee to another city, town, or village in the same country – this is called internal displacement.

Displaced people are sometimes referred to as internally displaced people (IDPs). The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) estimates that 21.6 million people were internally displaced annually between 2002 and 2022 because of climate-related hazards.

It’s vital to have data on climate-related displacement to help develop responses for the people affected and to plan for future emergencies.

Monitoring displacement

The IDMC monitors internal displacement across the world. It collects data from multiple sources globally and triangulates them to create a more accurate picture. The data helps identify the main trigger for displacement – conflict or disaster. Identical data points are captured in different countries to allow for meaningful comparisons.

The IDMC started developing a methodology for measuring displacement due to disaster (often as a result of climate change) in 2019.

Mapping vulnerable populations in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, where cyclones and flooding are an increasing risk to safety and trigger for internal displacement, a mapping system is helping with disaster planning. 

GeoDash allows users to access and overlay 740 different datasets including building layouts, maps of utilities like water and gas, and road networks. It is helping national government and local authorities to plan for climate emergencies by identifying possible shelters. It’s also been instrumental in identifying areas where the infrastructure is most vulnerable to climate disasters.

Using Fire Data to identify wildfires

Out of control wildfires in Greece, Turkey, Australia, the US, and Canada in recent years have caused displacement as communities are destroyed or dwindle to the point where they are no longer viable. 

Human rights organisations like Amnesty International use ‘Fire Data’ as part of their digital investigations into conflict and disaster situations involving fire.

Data is collected via the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Collection 6 instrument, VIIRS S-NPP 375m and VIIRS NOAA-20 375.

VIIRS thermal sensors detect thermal anomalies and MODIS maps the earth’s entire surface every 1-2 days to a high resolution. Used together, they can help with the early detection of fire that could indicate an emerging crisis.

Anyone can access Fire Data through NASA’s Worldview mapping system. However, as with any data-reliant system, false positives are possible. Organisations like Amnesty cross-reference Fire Data with other sources of information to build an accurate picture of what’s happening.

Identifying groups vulnerable to climate change in the UK

Climate Just is a mapping tool produced by the University of Manchester with support from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and in partnership with The Environment Agency, JBA Consulting, Climate UK, and the Centre for Sustainable Energy.

It was set up to help organisations and individuals to assess the likely impact of climate change in local UK communities.

The tool overlays information on social vulnerabilities with risk profiles for flooding, heatwaves, and other climate crises.

It has been used successfully in Staffordshire to inform the countywide climate resilience strategy for local communities.

An ‘intolerable tide’ of displaced people

Some of the effects of the climate emergency are now irreversible. Globally, up to 3.6 billion people could be highly vulnerable to climate change. Community infrastructures are being pushed beyond their limits and crumbling, leaving communities little choice but to flee.

The UN appointed its first Special Rapporteur on Climate Change, Ian Fry, in 2022. He said: “We are faced with an intolerable tide of people moving from their homes due to the impacts of climate change.”

The legal protections for people displaced by climate change are shaky at best. They fall outside of the definition for refugees and have few options for rebuilding lost homes and lost communities.

Combining datasets on the indicators of climate vulnerability in a meaningful way isn’t the answer to climate change. But digital tools can help to plan support for and even prevent climate displacement.